US equities are unlikely to fall by 20 per cent or more and the risk of recession remains low given expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs. While US equities are likely to fall by the end of the year, weighed down by high valuations, mixed growth prospects and policy uncertainty, the chances of an outright bear market fall are low because the economy is also partly supported by a "healthy private sector", according to the team led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann. Moreover, historical analysis by strategists suggests that declines of more than 20 per cent in the S & P 500 have been less frequent since the 1990s because of longer business cycles, reduced macroeconomic volatility and the "cushioning" role of central banks. In a report on September 9, they said they were tactically neutral in asset allocation but "moderately pro-risk" over the 12-month span.