The US presidential election of 2024 kicks off next Tuesday (November 5), and many major opinion polls still show that Trump and Harris are neck and neck. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), hedge funds and managers have accumulated long positions in the US dollar of $18 billion ahead of the US election vote. At present, Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's promised tariffs will support the dollar at least in the short term, and hedge funds and other speculative traders expect the potential impact of the election on demand for safe-haven assets and the direction of tariffs to make the dollar rally further. The consensus view is that Mr. Trump's proposal to lower corporate taxes would be good for corporate earnings, so a win would boost US stocks. Mr. Harris's potential tax hike is seen as relatively bearish. However, Bank of America and Citi recently raised the opposite opinion. "Many of the positive possibilities for next week have been priced in, so risks are tilted to the downside," said analyst Marc Chandler. "Gold recently hit an all-time high, but failed to break above $2,800. It is worth noting that when the US stock market fell on October 31, gold also sold off sharply, almost as if it was being liquidated to meet margin requirements." (Gold Ten)