JPMorgan Chase has warned that under the weight of the Trump administration's tariff policy, the real GDP of the United States will contract, and the economy may enter a recession. Michael Feroli, the bank's chief economist in the United States, pointed out in the latest report that JPMorgan Chase has lowered its full-year real GDP growth forecast to a contraction of 0.3% from the previous 1.3%, and expects the economy to contract in the third and fourth quarters of this year. "The decline in economic activity is expected to push the unemployment rate to 5.3%," Feroli stressed in the report. "If the forecast comes true, our stagflationary forecast will put the Federal Reserve policymakers in a policy dilemma." The warning highlights the accelerating build-up of downside risks to the US economy as trade tensions continue to escalate.