Melanie Baker, senior economist at Royal Asset Management in London, said in a note that she still expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, but not earlier than the second half of the year, when clearer signs of a slowdown are expected. She noted that recession risks have risen and the outlook for global and US growth has deteriorated. However, for now, she remains in the "slowdown" camp rather than the "recession" camp because of the pause in reciprocal tariffs and signs that Trump is responding to market pressure. (Kim 10)