Erian, a well-known columnist and dean of Queen's College, Cambridge, said the current guessing game over the path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is causing market volatility. US Treasuries have already suffered a sharp sell-off after a strong September non-farm payrolls report prompted traders to quickly downgrade bets on the Fed's future sharp rate cuts. The decline since Friday has pushed yields on benchmark two-year and 10-year Treasuries above 4 per cent for the first time since August. Swap traders now expect an 80 per cent chance that the Fed will cut rates by just 25 basis points at its November meeting. The probability of a 50 basis point cut in November has fallen from more than 60 per cent to zero in the past 15 days. Mr. Erian added that the Fed's communications since 2021 had "amplified" market volatility, even though policy guidance should have done the opposite.