On April 3, economists at Morgan Stanley said that Trump's reciprocal tariffs on Asia could be a bigger drag on economic growth than in 2018-19, and Asia is the most vulnerable to tariffs given that most countries in the region have trade surpluses with the United States. Economists say the focus will be on whether these countries can negotiate a deal with the US to reduce tariffs. "Rising policy uncertainty will weigh on business confidence, which in turn weighs on capital spending and trade," the economists note. "We believe that the more trade-oriented an economy is, the greater the drag on growth [from tariffs]."